The Iran war is forcing soul-searching within the global economic elite on how to respond to a series of shocks that show no signs of abating.
Four weeks into the conflict, the disruption to energy supply is already severe enough that even an abrupt end to hostilities wouldn’t bring things back to how they were pre-crisis, said Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research.
"It’s going to take a long time to repair everything,” Koo said in an interview at the Ambrosetti workshop by Lake Como, Italy. Governments and banks are facing a type of supply shock that is hard to handle, he added. "If it ends people can start planning. For now, no one can plan anything.”
Uncertainty has intensified in US President Donald Trump’s second term, with his tariffs disrupting trade alliances and threats against Greenland and complaints about NATO heightening European fears about security. The war launched February 28 by the US and Israel has sowed anxiety over energy and the future of the Middle East.
These shocks amount to an "earthquake” forcing a rethink of the global economic system, said Mario Monti, Italy’s former prime minister and senator for life.
Trump’s unilateral decisions, "along with an unwillingness to accept the constraints of the rule of law,” he said, are "undermining the foundations of democratic capitalism.”
The question, Monti added, is: "What will be the consequences of the annihilation of this system.”
Participants at the conference in Cernobbio spoke at the end of a week that became a moment of stock-taking for observers and financial markets on the economic fallout racked up by Trump on all fronts.
While there was concern about damage from the war, there was also optimism about Europe’s potential resilience, said Valerio De Molli, the host of the workshop.
"The advantage of Trump’s actions is that it has had an almost electroshock effect on Europe,” said De Molli, chief executive officer of the European House - Ambrosetti.
"Europe has managed to negotiate the Mercosur accord, which had been stalled for 25 years, the deal with India which had been on hold for almost 20 years, and then Indonesia, Australia and others,” he added. "It has also finally agreed to spend more on defense, and is attracting more researchers and international students than ever before, to name a few.”
The reassessment is taking place at a time of economic strain for many countries.
On Thursday, the OECD was the first major international institution to release forecasts reflecting the impact of the Middle East conflict. While the world economy had been on track to strengthen, it now faces another uncomfortable bout of rising living costs, the Paris-based club of rich nations said.
"It’s clear at this point that there will be an impact on inflation and growth,” said Fabrizio Pagani, former chief of staff to Italy’s finance ministry and currently partner at financial advisory firm Vitale & Co. "Of course the duration of the conflict will show how deep that impact is.”
Central banks around the world have collectively adopted a posture of heightened vigilance. While the Federal Reserve reiterated that interest-rate cuts remain a long way off, the European Central Bank discussed the possibility of a hike as soon as next month.
Governments, meanwhile, are adjusting their plans. Officials in Rome, preparing forecasts for release in April, may cut their 2026 growth outlook for Italy, and both Germany and France are facing similar problems.
Beyond the near term, there’s growing concern among business elites in Europe that the transatlantic relationship, long a stabilising force for markets and institutions, is becoming less reliable and will have to be replaced by a different model that relies more on self-sufficiency and alliances that go beyond the US-Europe relationship.
"We need to work out a network of countries across the world that are simply willing to continue the legacy of the US” until it "might be willing to take back that leadership,” said Monti, known for stabilizing Italy’s economy from a debt crisis 15 years ago. "Europe could perhaps be a promoter of this network for the rule of law and multilateralism.”