Bank of Canada keeps its policy rate at 2.25%
The Bank of Canada on Wednesday kept its key policy rate on hold, as expected, but Governor Tiff Macklem warned it was ready to raise borrowing costs if higher energy prices risked turning into persistent inflation.The bank, which has kept its key rate at 2.25% since October, said the Middle East conflict would drive up gasoline prices and boost inflation in the short term."It is too early to assess the impact of the war on growth in Canada," Macklem told reporters, adding that, for now, the risk of higher energy costs spilling into broader prices looked contained."Governing Council will look through the war's immediate impact on inflation but if energy prices stay high, we will not let their effects broaden and become persistent inflation," he said.Before the conflict, inflation had hovered near the bank's 2% target for several months, with policy seen as modestly supporting a weak economy.Economists say persistently high energy prices could upend forecasts for growth and inflation if the Strait of Hormuz - which handles a fifth of global oil trade - remains shut for more than a few weeks."The tone of these communications reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada is willing to look through the impacts of higher energy prices on CPI so long as the conflict doesn't last for too long," Royce Mendes, managing director at Desjardins, wrote in a note."As a result, we continue to expect officials will leave the policy rate unchanged for the duration of this year," he said.However, money markets, which had priced in a likely December hike, increased their bets for an increase from June onwards, with expectations for a full 25-basis-point move in December rising sharply.The Canadian dollar weakened after the announcement, slipping 0.20% to C$1.3717 or 72.90 US cents."Economic weakness combined with rising inflation is a dilemma for central banks," said Macklem."Raising interest rates to slow inflation could further weaken the economy. Easing interest rates to support growth risks pushing inflation well above target."He said near-term growth was likely to be weaker than the bank projected in January and described uncertainty as acute.Canada is also contending with US tariffs on some critical sectors, subdued business investment, a soft labour market and uncertainty over the future of the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal."Canada's economy is dealing with a lot, and now we face more volatility," Macklem said.