The Global South must claim the climate mantle at COP30

Of all the seismic geopolitical shifts in recent years, perhaps the most striking is the West’s rapid decline as a force in global climate governance. Under President Donald Trump’s second administration, the US has become both more aggressive and more isolationist. Meanwhile, the European Union has grown timid, fragmented, and inward-looking. Will the Global South – especially Brazil, South Africa, India, and China – step up to fill the climate leadership vacuum?Many developing countries have long feared that climate policies might reinforce historical inequalities or constrain their growth. But now, the Global South has an opening to ensure that the international agenda reflects its priorities.Policymakers recognise the need for a change. While global co-operation has produced numerous important climate commitments, such as those made at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit and those contained in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, they remain largely unfulfilled. Moreover, financial support from the rich world has been well below what is needed, hindering climate action in developing countries, eroding trust in Western leaders, and lowering global ambitions.The West has controlled the climate narrative for decades, because it dominates the science that informs the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the multilateral development banks that provide climate financing, and the global media outlets that shape public opinion.Many Global South governments have already played key roles in shaping the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris climate agreement.There are signs that Brazil, India, South Africa, and China are building on this foundation to forge a cohesive climate agenda ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, which is focused on collective action, or mutirão. In April, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and UN Secretary-General António Guterres brought together 17 heads of state from the Global South and the EU for a summit aimed at elevating countries’ climate ambitions in the lead-up to COP30.Brazil has also leveraged its Brics+ presidency to build momentum for COP30, creating a roadmap for expanding co-operation on energy security and establishing the Brics Laboratory for Trade, Climate Change, and Sustainable Development. In early July, the Brics+ Summit of presidents and heads of state approved a Leaders’ Framework Declaration on Climate Finance. Whether these initiatives will deliver tangible results remains uncertain, given Brics+ countries’ divergent interests.Meanwhile, South Africa is using its G20 presidency to amplify African voices and push for debt relief, green industrialisation, and low-cost finance – in other words, it is attempting to address the structural barriers that prevent vulnerable countries from investing in climate mitigation and adaptation. With the right financial and technological support, the green transition can drive broad-based prosperity in the developing world.The costs of clean tech have plummeted, largely owing to China’s industrial capacity, making some of the material conditions for climate leadership in the Global South more favourable. Moreover, China could finance decarbonisation projects in other countries through renminbi loans, export credits, and debt-for-clean-energy swaps. If successful, Brics+ members’ de-dollarisation efforts could overcome financial bottlenecks and reduce dependence on Western banks.In today’s fragmented world, multilateralism remains essential, and South-South co-operation on agreed climate targets offers a powerful platform to help revitalise it. The Global South is also well-positioned to lead plurilateral initiatives that advance climate solutions.Of course, Western countries must be held accountable at COP30 for their historic emissions and unmet climate-finance promises. But the summit represents a vital opportunity for the Global South to demonstrate that climate and development goals are not mutually exclusive. To seize it, these countries’ leaders must subordinate their differences to their overriding interest in presenting a clear-eyed vision of an energy transition that uplifts their people and protects the planet.