India-Pakistan tensions disrupt global aviation

The skies over South Asia, among the most strategically significant corridors in international air travel, are once again caught in the crossfire of geopolitics. Amid deadly border clashes between India and Pakistan, a cascade of airspace closures, airport disruptions and hasty re-routings is imposing fresh burdens on airlines, passengers, and global aviation networks already stretched by existing geopolitical no-go zones.This latest escalation, which erupted following India’s retaliatory air strikes — codenamed "Operation Sindoor” — on suspected militant infrastructure in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, comes in response to a brutal cross-border attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that left 26 dead, including 25 Indian nationals. Tensions along the Line of Control (LoC) have spiralled into the most serious confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours since the Pulwama-Balakot crisis of 2019.In a move that swiftly reverberated across international flight operations, Pakistan closed its airspace to all Indian-registered aircraft from April 24, forcing India to reciprocate by banning Pakistani overflights. The result: A high-altitude deadlock that has forced a growing number of international airlines to reroute hundreds of daily flights to avoid one of the world’s busiest transit corridors linking Europe and Southeast Asia.The Indian subcontinent sits at the heart of trans-Eurasian air traffic. Each day, dozens of long-haul flights from Europe to Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania rely on direct routings over Pakistan and northern India to remain time- and fuel-efficient. The sudden closure of these airspaces has forced airlines to adopt costly detours south over the Arabian Sea or north via Central Asia.For Air India, the consequences are particularly acute. The flag carrier has rerouted key long-haul services to the United States, Canada, and Europe via circuitous routes that have necessitated unplanned refuelling stops in Vienna, Frankfurt and Copenhagen. Some westbound flights are now nearly two hours longer, stretching crews, aircraft and passenger tolerance.British Airways, Lufthansa, KLM, Singapore Airlines, and Thai Airways are among the international carriers impacted. BA’s London-Delhi flights are operating via Muscat and are now clocking over 9.5 hours compared to the previous 7h45 average. Lufthansa’s Munich-Mumbai service has seen up to 1h40 added to its flight time, while Singapore Airlines has had to cut some frequencies to preserve fuel margins and aircraft availability.Each additional hour of flight typically costs a long-haul airline $8,000–15,000 depending on the aircraft type, route economics, and crew implications. That cost compounds quickly over days and weeks — and not all of it is absorbed by airlines. Passengers are already seeing itinerary changes, missed connections, and in some cases, higher fares.In a further blow to connectivity, Indian authorities have suspended civilian operations at several airports near the border, including Amritsar, Srinagar, and Chandigarh—citing precautionary defence protocols. Although initially limited to northern India, the closures have affected domestic services operated by carriers such as IndiGo, Vistara, and Akasa Air, leading to cascading delays across the system.In Pakistan, flights were temporarily suspended at major hubs including Lahore and Islamabad, though services have since resumed under heavy military surveillance.As of this week, India’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has ordered airlines to maintain contingency fuel reserves for all international flights operating near the LoC, citing "heightened risk and unpredictable closure periods.” The move adds weight, reduces cargo and cuts into airlines’ profit margins.IndiGo, India’s largest domestic airline, has cancelled over 160 flights since April 24, citing "ongoing airspace and security issues.” Vistara and SpiceJet have announced operational revisions, while Air Canada and United Airlines are re-routing their India-bound flights to avoid Pakistan’s FIR (Flight Information Region) entirely.The ramifications go beyond just aviation logistics. Airspace restrictions are not merely technical reroutes—they symbolise ruptures in regional trust. For two nations locked in decades of hostility, aviation has long been one of the few practical interfaces for civil cooperation. Overflight agreements, flight permissions and reciprocal access are highly choreographed diplomatic tools, often facilitated through ICAO or bilateral talks.When these mechanisms break down, the fallout extends globally.More than 700 flights per day typically cross Indian and Pakistani FIRs, many operated by third-country airlines. European carriers flying to Southeast Asia, Middle Eastern airlines connecting Australia to Europe, and Asian carriers serving Africa all rely on the corridor. The strain on alternate routings—especially over the Arabian Peninsula and Central Asia—is now tangible.Worse still, many of these alternatives are already congested or geopolitically sensitive. Russian airspace remains off-limits to most Western carriers due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Iranian FIRs are under watch due to US sanctions and safety concerns. Syrian airspace remains unstable. The skies over Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan offer little reprieve. The cumulative effect is a shrinking global flight map—a costly reality for international aviation in 2025.This is not the first time that South Asia’s geopolitics has paralysed aviation. Following the 2019 Pulwama attack, Pakistan closed its airspace for over four months, costing Indian carriers an estimated $80mn and significantly disrupting international connectivity. At the time, carriers including United Airlines, Finnair and Cathay Pacific were forced into re-evaluating their route viability.The India-Pakistan airspace standoff is more than a regional dispute. It represents the latest stress point in a global aviation network increasingly exposed to geopolitical fragility. Airlines must weigh the safety of their operations against spiralling costs and operational complexity. Passengers are left with fewer options, longer journeys, and higher fares.Until a diplomatic thaw is achieved, the high skies over South Asia will remain a low point for aviation connectivity — and a sobering reminder of how quickly airspace can become another battlefield.

• The author is an aviation analyst. X handle: @AlexInAir