Qatar’s GDP per capita may exceed $100,000 in 2026 as the national economy is expected to pick up steam in the years ahead, researcher FocusEconomics has said in an update. Last updated: August 06 2022 08:32 PM
The country's GDP per capita in 2026 will be $101,816, FocusEconomics estimated in its latest report.
This year it will be $81,360 and $83,526 in 2023, $87,921 (2024) and $94,818 in 2025.
National GDP has been estimated by FocusEconomics to reach $217bn this year, $219bn in 2023, $228bn (2024), $243bn (2025) and $259bn (2026).
The current account balance has been estimated at $43.6bn this year, $35.2bn (2023), $28.3bn (2024), $34.2bn (2025) and $40.6bn (2026).
GDP growth this year has been estimated at 4.5% and 2.8% in 2023, 2.8% (2024), 3.3% (2025) and 3.8% (2026).
The current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) has been estimated at 20.1 this year, 16.1 (2023), 12.4 (2024), 14.1 (2025) and 15.7 (2026).
Merchandise trade balance has been estimated at $80.9bn this year, $78bn (2023), $75bn (2024), $76bn (2025) and $81.2bn (2026).
Fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP) may reach 9.0 this year, 5.7 (2023), 2.6 (2024), 3.2 (2025) and 3.8 (2026).
Public debt (as a percentage of GDP) has been estimated by FocusEconomics at 45.8 this year, 41.5 (2023), 42.1 (2024), 41.1 (2025) and 40 (2026).
Unemployment (as a percentage of active population), the researcher said, will remain at a meagre 0.2 between 2022 and 2026.
After a 2.5% expansion in year-on-year terms in Q1 (first quarter), the economy likely picked up steam in Q2 (second quarter), FocusEconomics noted.
“The private-sector PMI was at a record high in May–June, thanks to strong expansions in output and new orders. What’s more, tourism continued to boost local activity, with visitor arrivals rising 869% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May,” FocusEconomics said.
In addition, higher oil and gas prices have buoyed government coffers and supported the external sector: Q2’s trade surplus was the largest since 2014.
The picture in the energy sector was more mixed however; after growing in annual terms in April, the volume of energy output “contracted” in May, FocusEconomics said.
According to FocusEconomics, "Qatar’s GDP outlook for 2022 is upbeat".
“Elevated energy prices will be a key growth driver. Moreover, the non-energy sector will record strong growth, given the reduced impact of the pandemic and the upcoming FIFA World Cup. Increased trade with the Arab Quartet will also be a contributor.
“However, inflationary pressures and rising interest rates pose risks. FocusEconomics panellists see a 4.5% rise in GDP during 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% growth in 2023.”
Inflation rose from 5.2% in May to 5.4% in June. Items related to recreation, utilities and food saw the largest increases.
The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) hiked rates by 50 basis points in July, diverging from the Federal Reserve’s 75 basis points hike, the researcher said.
Inflation is expected to average almost double its 2021 level this year due to recovering demand and higher commodity prices.
FocusEconomics panellists see inflation averaging 4.4% in 2022, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2023.