Qatar’s public debt has been forecast to fall steadily, from 63.3% of the country’s GDP this year to 56.9% in 2025, FocusEconomics said in a report.
The country's public debt as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) will fall continuously over the next five years, the researcher said.
It is projected at 60.3% for 2022, 60% (2023), 58.5% (2024) and 56.9% (2025).
Qatar’s GDP has been estimated to reach $207bn in 2025 from $168bn this year, the new report has shown.
Next year, it will be $177bn, followed by $187bn (2023) and $197bn (2024).
GDP per capita, FocusEconomics said, has been estimated to reach $73,126 in 2025 from $59,772 this year.
The country’s GDP per capita has been estimated at $62,955 in 2022, $66,216 (2023) and $69,679 (2024).
Qatar’s economic growth in terms of nominal GDP will reach 5.2% in 2025 from 14.6% by the year-end.
Next year it will be 5.6%, 5.4% (2023) and 5.5% (2024).
The country’s fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP is set to rise to 3% in 2025 from an estimated 1.4% this year.
Next year it will be 1.8%, 2.2% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024.
Qatar’s merchandise trade balance will scale up further and exceed $45.2bn in 2025, the report said.
This year, FocusEconomics has projected the merchandise trade balance at nearly $33.6bn. Next year, it will account for $35.3bn, $38.6bn in (2023) and $41.9bn (2024).
The current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 7.5% in 2025 compared with 3.2% in (2022), 4.6% (2023) and 6% in 2024.
The country’s inflation, the report noted, will be 1.8% in 2025 and 1% this year.
Qatar’s unemployment rate (as a percentage of active population) will remain a meagre in 0.2% in 2025, from 0.3% this year.
Terming Qatar’s economic outlook “stable”, FocusEconomics said the economy is set to expand this year on stronger domestic and foreign demand. Investment in the energy sector and easing tensions with Gulf neighbours should also provide support.
However, volatile commodity prices, the potential extension of restrictions and possible delays in the Covid-19 vaccine rollout pose downside risks.
FocusEconomics panellists see a 2.8% rise in GDP in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, before growth of 3.5% in 2022.
The energy sector began the year on a robust footing, with oil and gas extraction growing year-on-year in January, FocusEconomics noted.
In March, Qatar Petroleum signed a 10-year supply deal with a Chinese firm. This came after the country inked supply deals with Bangladesh and Pakistan, amid plans to expand LNG output by over 40% in the next several years.
Consumer prices fell 1.4% in annual terms in February, following January’s 1.3% decline. Prices are seen rising later this year on higher food and energy costs, recovering activity and a supportive base effect.
“Our panelists see consumer prices rising 1.0% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, our panel sees inflation averaging 2.2%,” FocusEconomics said.