Aviation is perhaps one of history’s greatest ever achievements. Within its 100 years of existence, the magic of flight continues to effortlessly connect people, cultures and businesses, ensuring our world is truly a much smaller, globalised, and harmonised world. The concept of boarding a commercial plane, settling in and effortlessly admiring the view from above is something we often take for granted. First-class suites, double beds, faster flights, and flight ticket prices less than a cup of coffee — our industry has it all.

But around the globe, aviation — our very capable form of transport, one very well experienced in facing strong headwinds — is facing an unprecedented and potentially catastrophic challenge.

The demand for air travel has fallen in what is already being considered the worst crisis to face the industry in the history of commercial flight. The destructive impact of the Covid-19 coronavirus has led to never-seen-before global travel restrictions and an immense cloud of uncertainty over when we’ll be over the worst of what is still yet to come.

Many airlines have probably already been driven into technical bankruptcy, or are at least substantially in breach of debt covenants, reported the Centre for Aviation this week. This crisis will reduce the number of airlines operating around the world through the survival of the fittest nature of the airline world.

Those that were previously financially fragile may struggle to get back on their feet without government intervention and support. The global aviation workforce is already shrinking. British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Norwegian Air, Ryanair, American Airlines, United, and Delta will soon be almost completely grounded. Airlines are grounding jets at a rate the world has never witnessed before — so much so that the 737 MAX crisis feels like a distant memory.

But throughout history, the world’s darkest days have always been followed by its finest hours. I frequently reassure myself, and others that aviation — vulnerable to weather, terrorism, economic downturns, and oil price fluctuations — is an incredibly resilient sector.

The airline industry has proven resilient to shocks, including pandemics. Even in the outbreak of SARS, monthly international passenger traffic returned to its pre-crisis level within nine months.

However, the very strong growth of the Chinese air transport market over recent years, and the extraordinary, and rapid spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus has left several parts of the industry battling for survival.

Since the financial crisis more than a decade ago, the industry has been deeply transformed, airlines have built up their defences with strong balance sheets, reorganised business models and for those that are financially healthy, keep cash reserves.

Normality is not yet on the horizon, but as the saying goes, “this too, shall pass”

Like most of you, I long for the day when air travel feels ‘normal’ again — without concern or restrictions, panic or disruption.

For now, we must remain thankful for the dedicated aviation industry pilots and crew who are continuing to work to fly relatives home safely, carrying much-needed cargo, food, medicine and aid to cities and countries that depend on imports, all while much of the world stay home. Keep safe, everyone.

*The author is an aviation analyst.


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