*Henry Hub prices are expected to reach some $4 by 2030 and almost $6 by 2050, GECF said in its latest outlook covering a period up to 2050

After the recent declines in natural gas prices as a consequence of the supply glut, the market is expected to “rebalance” in the mid-2020s, leading longer term to generally rising prices globally, according to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum.
Henry Hub prices are expected to reach some $4 (per million Btu) by 2030 and almost $6 by 2050, the GECF said in its latest outlook covering a period up to 2050.
It said Asian natural gas prices will rise in the long term, fuelled by increasing demand, a policy push for air quality and expanding consumption infrastructure and uses.
However, increasing market integration and growing LNG market would put a cap on price increases
European natural gas prices will be under strong price pressure in the long-term, as carbon mitigation policies and global gas market integration will increase competition between European and Asian consumers, the GECF noted.
Carbon pricing schemes in various regions and countries are expected to develop, which would provide significant support to the competitiveness of "natural-gas-versus coal" in the long term.
In the European Union, the emissions trading system (ETS) price is expected to reach $40 a tonne in the early 2030s and over $80 a tonne by 2050. Prices in other regions, however, would be significantly lower, the GECF noted in its outlook released in Doha yesterday.
Long-term oil prices, it said, will reflect the falling cost of extraction for new tight oil projects, which are expected to decrease to $70 for a barrel.
According to the GECF outlook, global growth will decelerate significantly towards 2050, as the largest developing economies are expected to increase labour-intensive growth, while many others will see less additional employment.
The medium-term economic outlook is impacted by the US-China trade tensions, with world trade growth slowing and impacting overall economic growth.
For the developed economies, growth prospects are supported by the knowledge-intensive growth model while for developing economies closing the labour productivity gap would be the main growth driver
Risks to the economic forecast are tilted to the downside. Growing tensions between the US and China go beyond trade and are the main risk for the global forecast, as there are signs that the global financial system could be fractured by the geopolitical standoff
The global car parc, which refers to the number of cars and other vehicles in a region or market, is forecast to grow by 716mn vehicles, including 545mn in developing Asia, and 440mn electric vehicles (EVs) by 2050. With growth constrained by pro-EV policies, NGVs will expand from 0.7% to 2.2% of the car parc, the outlook noted.
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