As the March 29 deadline approaches and the United Kingdom gets ever closer to leaving the European Union (EU), the uncertainties that surround Brexit are totally unhelpful for the global economy.
Globalisation has, to varying degrees, permeated nearly every industry — but none more so than aviation.
Billions of people fly around the world each year and large amounts of cargo are also lifted by air, annually.
Without international co-operation and access to worldwide markets, obviously, aviation would never have really got off the ground.
There is significant uncertainty around the way in which Brexit will affect the global airline industry.
With the clock ticking, what does Brexit mean for airlines as the UK is currently home to the largest aviation industry in Europe? 
Industry experts say the UK’s geographical position in the global airlines network is vital as around 80% of all North Atlantic traffic either pass through the United Kingdom or the Irish-controlled airspace.
Changes to the relationship between the UK and the EU, post-Brexit, could potentially have tremendous implications for all players in this key market.
The global trade body of airlines — IATA, which crunched the numbers of airlines’ planned 2019 capacity, estimated that up to 5mn extra airline seats are at risk of being cancelled if a “no-deal Brexit” occurs.
Potentially, if the UK falls out of the EU without an agreement on security, it could mean passengers and baggage need to be rescreened on flights into the EU from the UK.
Therefore, major stakeholders in the aviation sector continue to call for greater political certainty to enable contingency plans to be developed.
The risk of a no-deal Brexit causing major problems to the aviation industry is ‘high’, IATA noted recently.
IATA’s regional vice-president (Europe) Rafael Schvartzman said airlines continued to face uncertainty ahead of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU in March this year.
“The risk is high,” said Schvartzman, when asked how plausible it was that a no deal scenario would arise, causing problems for airlines and passengers alike.
As the UK continues to negotiate with the EU, the aviation industry remains in an uncertain situation, he said, at the Global Media Day in Geneva last month.
An ‘IATA Brexit’ report, conducted by consultancy Taylor Airey, found four key issues surrounding the situation to be lacking in clarity: air services agreements, safety framework, security, and border management.
Reiterating his point on the need for transparency on any Brexit agreement, Schvartzman said: “A no deal scenario would leave no time to negotiate an air service agreement between the EU and UK, disrupting air connectivity.”
“We require much more clarity and transparency on what is being agreed,” he said.
The UK’s aviation industry has arguably evolved through the EU more so than any other, making Brexit a very real threat for airlines on both sides of the English Channel, and even further afield, market analysts say.
They point out the UK’s aviation system has developed through the EU laws, and access to other markets like the United States and Canada has also been secured through the bloc.
What this essentially means is that the UK has to strike a deal with its neighbours to maintain the current status-quo.
A different policy regime will have to be executed through an entirely new regulatory framework.
The UK then would have to embark on what would be the huge task of striking vast amounts of deals with the hundreds of nations around the world to ensure that flights in and out of the UK continue after Brexit.
The extent to which airlines flying to and from the UK are affected by the UK exiting the EU is heavily dependent on the type of relationship on aviation the UK negotiates before its March 29 divorce from the European Union.
Industry leaders and experts, including IATA, believe there are many reasons why a drastic change to the UK aviation market would neither be in Europe’s nor global stakeholders’ best interests.
The EU is the single biggest destination market for passengers leaving the UK, accounting for 49% of the market.
Currently, UK airlines can fly to, from and in between any country in the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA). As a non-EU member, the UK’s unrestricted access to the ECAA countries may have to be renegotiated and may well require the UK to accept EU aviation laws, according to WillisTowersWatson, an Irish-domiciled global multinational risk management, insurance brokerage and advisory firm.
Airlines also benefit from arrangements with third-party countries as parties to regional pacts such as the EU-US Open Skies Agreement.
“It remains to be seen if a post-Brexit UK can maintain its influence with the US, EU and other important partners such as China with the commercial value and attractiveness of its home market having declined,” WillisTowersWatson noted.
Already IATA director-general Alexandre de Juniac predicted “chaos if nothing is done before March 29.”
“On April 1, it will be us, the airlines, who have to manage millions of passengers potentially grounded in airports unable to take a flight...
It will be a nightmare in European airports and UK airports,” he warned.


Pratap John is Business Editor and Chief Business Reporter at Gulf Times.
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