*Review of the book “The GCC Setback of June” by Mohanna al-Hubail

 A recently released book 'The GCC Setback of June' by well-known author Mohanna al-Hubail documents and analyses the various stages of the Gulf crisis, which started on June 5, 2017 when three GCC countries - Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain - alongside Egypt launched a sudden blockade against Qatar. 
The 310-page book was published by the Arab Institute for Studies and Publishing in Arabic with its first edition released in September 2018.
The book also reviews the events behind the scenes that took place in the run-up to the GCC crisis. The content of the book is enriched by the broad knowledge of the author about the socio-political structure of the region and its history, as he is specialised in the strategic affairs of the region and is well-known through his previous writings and analyses, which reflect clearly throughout his new work. 
Through its nine chapters that mark the various stages of the crisis since it first erupted, and its development throughout the previous period, the book analyses the events and the people behind them. 
The main topics include the Kuwaiti mediation and the US role; the State and Tribalism; the Political Conflict in the GCC Region; the Role of Qatari-Saudi Differences; the Future of the GCC; Facing Iran and the Israeli Role; the Future of the GCC and Qatar. 
The focus of the book could be considered as the issue of dismantling the GCC regional system and the impact and consequences of this development, while giving more stress on Qatar. The writer considers that the crisis has undermined the future of the GCC, creating a crisis of trust and confidence among the GCC members that threatens the very existence of the council. 
Accordingly, the book believes that the Saudi misuse of tribalism and inciting such feelings among the different tribes and clans would push the area towards the last step for destruction while the main losses would be sustained by Saudi Arabia, making it very difficult for the region to maintain its stable geopolitical structure. 
Regarding the role of Iran, he sees that it is inevitable to deal with Iran as a strategic partner, stressing that a balance in relations should be maintained without resorting to any type of wars that would ultimately pay off Trump or others. He is of the view that while responding to Iran, the media should avoid any reference to the sectarian jargon and inciting sectarianism, which would eventually ease the implementation of any such motive instead of curbing it. 
The writer goes back to the historical differences between Saudi Arabia and Qatar and how this culminated in the ongoing blockade against Qatar, led by Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi exploited such differences to push forward its agenda in the region, the author feels. The writer also analyses the complex US role in the crisis, calling it the inciting strategic partner, that provided the blockading countries with the necessary cover to go ahead with their hostile policies against Qatar. 
He praises the wisdom of both the Amir of Kuwait and the Sultan of Oman for their stand on the crisis, saying that but for their haste to mediate and defuse the tension, the region would have slipped into a destructive armed conflict, which could have stretched even to the various tribes and clans of the region.
The writer expands on the consequences of the Gulf crisis negatively affecting the mutual trust and confidence among the GCC members driving both Qatar and Kuwait to form new alliances with Turkey, which in turn created more fears and division among the should-be brothers.
Besides the analysis and documentation of the events and their roots, the writer makes some suggestions to at least ease the tension between Doha and Riyadh. He advises the ‘estranged’ nations to sort out their differences and agree on broader issues, if not a complete reconciliation, as this would not be easy to reach for the time being. 
*(The review is based on the observations of Abbass Mohamed Saleh, Sudanese journalist and researcher)

About the Author

Mahanna al-Hubail was born in Al Zahran in Saudi Arabia in 1963. He is an independent Arab researcher and political analyst. He is settled outside Saudi Arabia and does not practise any political views or have any partisan alliance or obligations. He does not have any cultural or political links to any country. He has published many of his writings in various Arabic papers and contributes to Al Jazeera.net and various magazines. In particular, he talks about the concept of the Islamist progress and the strategic affairs of the GCC region and the regional and international developments in the GCC region.


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