Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) have bought Chancellor Angela Merkel
time with their vote to join her conservatives in another coalition, but
she risks losing her long grip on power if she fails to balance the
awkward allies’ conflicting demands.
Merkel’s conservatives — her Christian Democrats (CDU) and their
Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) allies — and the SPD are both
still bruised after suffering from the rise of the far-right Alternative
for Germany (AfD) in last year’s election.
Arch conservatives want to move right to counter the AfD, which profited
from Merkel’s 2015 decision to open German borders to over 1mn
migrants.
The SPD, by contrast, wants to allay people’s insecurities with spending on welfare and education.
“Merkel needs to appease a weakened and insecure SPD without alienating
her own CDU/CSU too much,” said Carsten Nickel, managing director at
consultancy Teneo Intelligence.
Merkel has shared power with the SPD in two of her previous three terms in office, from 2005-2009, and from 2013 until now.
The SPD said yesterday its members had voted by a two-thirds majority in favour of a coalition deal struck last month.
But the two blocs’ weak performances in last September’s election, when
they both suffered their worst results since Germany became a republic
in 1949, mean the latest incarnation of their awkward alliance promises
to be the most fractious yet.
“Despite the pretty solid majority (in the SPD ballot), this is not a
long-term or permanent set up,” said Guntram Wolff, director of the
Bruegel think tank.”The SPD is very fragile, and the CDU is also
fragile.”
The inclusion in the coalition deal of a clause that envisages a review
of the new government’s progress after two years is widely seen as
giving the SPD an exit should it want one, and has also fuelled a debate
about the post-Merkel era.
“If the Social Democrats continue to fall in the polls, then the point
will come at some stage when they say ‘we must get out of the
government’,” said Nils Diederich, professor at the Free University in
Berlin.
One opinion poll published last month showed the AfD surpassing the SPD
for the first time in a national poll to become the second-strongest
party.
The SPD initially vowed to rebuild in opposition, only agreeing to talks
on a return to its loveless marriage with Merkel after her negotiations
with two smaller parties collapsed in November, plunging Germany into
political uncertainty.
To stop the SPD from bolting, Merkel must deliver on those points in the
coalition deal that are most dear to the Social Democrats: healthcare
reform, and investment in education to meet the challenges of the
digital age.
Like French President Emmanuel Macron, who is pushing for “a Europe that
protects”, the SPD wants to promote economic stability and social
convergence through the European project.
Kevin Kuehnert, head of the SPD’s Jusos youth wing who campaigned for a
‘No’ vote, is ready to call out any delay in implementing the hard-won
coalition deal, which envisages eurozone reforms in partnership with
France.
“Criticism of the grand coalition remains,” he tweeted after the ballot
result. “The SPD needs to be more like it has been in recent weeks and
less like it has been in recent years — the Jusos will ensure this.”
To her right, Merkel, 63, also faces pressures from her own camp.
Her weakness on the refugee issue has forced the chancellor to name Jens
Spahn, her biggest critic within the conservative bloc, as health
minister in the new government.
Spahn, 37, wants to make the AfD “superfluous” by winning back voters on
the right. He is also widely seen as ambitious, with an eye on
succeeding Merkel, though he says he supports her as chancellor for the
full parliamentary period.
Illustrating his lukewarm support for the new tie-up with the SPD, he
described the coalition agreement this week as “no furious firework of
innovation”.
Josef Joffe, publisher-editor of weekly Die Zeit, questioned whether
Merkel would last out the full parliamentary term to 2021, “or whether
she will be forced to hand over leadership to a younger CDU generation
in two years.”
“Those who want to get rid of Merkel will try pull the party to right in
order to recapture those voters who have defected to the nationalist,
anti-immigrant AfD,” he said.
Merkel has already sought to head off challengers by appointing close
ally Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to take over as CDU secretary-general,
heeding calls from within the party to inject new blood and groom a
successor.
Merkel also wants to serve a full, fourth term, rather than yield before her time is up.
Asked last month if she saw Kramp-Karrenbauer as a possible successor,
Merkel dodged the question, replying: “We have our hands full managing
the business of the day.” – Reuters
This file photo taken on November 30, 2005 shows Angela Merkel of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) giving her first speech to parliament as German Chancellor at the Bundestag (lower house of parliament) in Berlin. Long dubbed the u201cQueen of Europeu201d, Germany’s veteran Chancellor Angela Merkel emerges as the bruised survivor of her deepest crisis to govern for what many expect will be her final term. After 12 years at the helm of Europe’s top economy, the pastor’s daughter often called the world’s most powerful woman goes on to live another day after post-war Germany’s longest stretch of coalition haggling.