Calls for N-free North Korea too little, too late

North Korea’s long-time enemy, the US, and its historically close ally, China, both condemned the isolated regime’s third nuclear test on Tuesday and urged Pyongyang to give up its military nuclear programme.

That prospect is no longer realistic, say analysts.

“For better or worse, one will have to accept the fact that North Korea is a real nuclear power,” said Ruediger Frank, a North Korea specialist at the University of Vienna.

Instead, the international community will have to shift to a more realistic stance.

While experts believe it likely that the UN Security Council will impose even harsher sanctions on the impoverished country, that tactic has not deterred its nuclear ambitions in the past.

“Sanctions are unfortunately not effective,” said John Swenson-Wright, an expert on East Asian security at the Chatham House think tank in London.

Beijing has not been willing to cut supplies to its impoverished neighbour, fearing that such a step could topple the regime of Kim Jong Un and create a political vacuum that could be filled by South Korea, Swenson-Wright said.

Punitive measures have also been ineffective because they have not hurt Pyongyang’s elite. “It’s necessary for the cost of sanctions to be shouldered by the people who make decisions,” he said.

Analysts said it would be best if regional powers and the US could restart talks with North Korea, but agreed that this would be difficult and that the West would likely have to first change its negotiating position.

“The notion that North Korea can be persuaded to give up its nuclear arsenal - I’ve been very sceptical about this from the beginning,” said Shannon Kile, an arms control specialist at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

“The West will have to think about adjusting negotiations to reality,” Frank said in Vienna.

Global powers should attempt to convince North Korea’s leaders that it does not have to feel threatened by the US, Frank said, something that could be achieved by normalising relations and setting up a regional security mechanism involving several countries.

However, experts warned that the political climate was not ripe for talks, as Obama might be restricted by hard-line legislators, and South Korea’s president-elect Park Geun Hye could find it hard to extend a hand to the North after the nuclear test.

“It’s difficult to see much negotiation space,” Swenson-Wright said.

In the absence of diplomacy, the fear is that military tensions could further rise in East Asia.

“You may see stepped up military exercises, with an emphasis of greater co-operation between the US, South Korea and Japan,” Kile said, adding that Japan and the US might also speed up their joint development of missile defence systems.

In the long run, additional nuclear tests and the development of a nuclear missile by North Korea might start an arms race with Japan and South Korea, Frank warned, even if both countries do not currently pursue nuclear weapons.

“In that case, East Asia’s security architecture would become unhinged,” he said.