Carswell (right) with Ukip leader Farage after the former announced that he is defecting.

AFP/Reuters/London

British Prime Minister David Cameron suffered a heavy blow yesterday when one of his lawmakers, Douglas Carswell, announced that he was leaving the Conservative Party to join the eurosceptic UK Independence Party (Ukip).

Carswell is to resign his seat and stand as a Ukip candidate at an upcoming by-election which, if he wins, would make him their first elected member of the House of Commons.

Polls suggest that the Ukip could take a handful of seats and thousands of votes from the Conservatives at the 2015 general election, which may increase the chances of victory for the opposition Labour party and defeat for Cameron.

Experts say Clacton, in the southeast of England, is among the Conservative seats most vulnerable to being captured by the eurosceptics at the election.

Cameron called the move “deeply regrettable” and “self-defeating” and vowed that the Conservatives would put up a “very strong” fight in the by-election.

But Carswell accused him of misleading voters over plans to claw back more powers from Brussels ahead of a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, which will take place in 2017 if the Conservatives win next year.

“My position became untenable,” said Carswell. “The Conservative leadership is not serious about change.”

He added that Cameron’s advisers had told him that Britain will not vote to leave the EU in the event of a referendum, because “we will give them (the voters) just enough to persuade them not to”.

“David Cameron has made up his mind. He wants to stay in,” Carswell told a news conference. “It’s all about positioning for the election. If I believed they were sincere about real change I wouldn’t be here. I don’t believe that they’re serious.”

The prime minister promised the referendum under pressure from the powerful eurosceptic wing of his party and to win back voters from the Ukip, which won May’s European Parliament elections, beating the Tories into third place.

That was the first British poll victory for a political grouping other than the Conservatives and Labour for more than a century.

“We have had a duopoly for many decades,” said Carswell. “We need choice and competition in politics.”

Carswell also slammed Cameron’s decision to rule out an electoral pact with the Ukip, pointing out that the Conservatives had been less reluctant to form a coalition government with the centre-left Liberal Democrats following the 2010 general election which remains in power.

Cameron hit back, telling the BBC that it was “deeply regrettable when people behave in this way, and also counterproductive”.

“I’ll want to make sure there is a very strong Conservative campaign,” he said of the by-election.

Ukip leader Nigel Farage, who appeared at his new recruit’s side at a press conference to announce the resignation, said it was “the noblest thing I’ve seen in British politics in my lifetime”.

Carswell has earned a reputation as a staunch eurosceptic and radical libertarian since he was first elected in 2005 in nearby Harwich.

He was at the heart of a successful bid to remove then speaker of the House of Commons Michael Martin following an expenses scandal which rocked parliament in 2009.

The by-election’s date has yet to be announced, but Carswell is considered to be in a very strong position.

Matthew Goodwin, an academic and leading authority on the Ukip, wrote on Twitter: “Clacton is THE most favourable seat for Ukip. Carswell will win hands down.”

“The demographics in Clacton are ideal for Ukip,” Goodwin told BBC radio. “This is a struggling, coastal seat, lots of older, white voters, few minority voters – it’s classic ‘left-behind’ territory.”

The news came as a “bolt from the blue” to his constituency.

“We always thought he was a Conservative, very much against Europe, but we thought he would work within the party to achieve his aims,” said Mick Page, the Conservative leader of the council which covers Clacton.

Farage announced on Tuesday that he was to run for parliament in next year’s election after his party confirmed him as their candidate for another coastal constituency, South Thanet.

Though a blow, Conservative strategists regard any fallout from the defection of Carswell as manageable. But other, similar defections could begin to pose a serious problem.

The Ukip wants an immediate British EU withdrawal and an end to what it calls an “open door” immigration policy.

It has no seats in the British parliament but holds 24 of the country’s 73 seats in the European Parliament.

Carswell’s announcement threatens to unsettle the Eurosceptic wing of Cameron’s party, estimated to account for around a third of his 304 members of parliament, before next year’s national election and could prompt other defections.

Tim Bale, a professor at London’s Queen Mary University and author of a history on the Conservative party, said that there was a risk Carswell’s decision could ignite “a kind of bubbling semi civil war” between now and the next election.

“That will give voters the idea that this isn’t a party that is interested in them and that it is more interested in arguing about Europe – it is divided,” Bale said in a phone interview.

Internal Conservative party ructions over Europe contributed to the political undoing of the last two Conservative prime ministers, John Major and Margaret Thatcher.

Michael Dugher, a lawmaker from the opposition Labour party, which is ahead in opinion polls before next year’s national election, said Carswell’s defection was “a hammer blow” to Cameron.

“Confidence in David Cameron is collapsing inside a Conservative party which is divided and running scared of Ukip,” Dugher said in a statement.

Farage said: “I don’t think it’s any great secret that there are now a number of members of parliament sitting on the Conservative benches, and indeed now some sitting on the Labour benches, who hold Ukip’s views very strongly. It will be an encouragement to others.”

Bale said enough further defections could undermine Cameron’s chances in next year’s election, given how close it is expected to be.

“It is a big deal if lots of people begin to jump ship, because it will begin to look like it is a sinking ship,” he said.

A YouGov poll yesterday put Conservative support at 34%, just behind Labour’s 35%. The Ukip was on 14%.

Carswell accused Cameron and his party of being filled with self-interested cliques who were more interested in holding power rather than effecting real change.

“Ultimately, they’re more comfortable being a small clique in Downing Street, sitting on a sofa,” he said, referring to the street where Cameron’s office is located. “For them politics is about people like them, it’s a game between different cliques to get to sit on the sofa.”

 

 

 

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