If the Gulf crisis remains unresolved, it would result in a (new) pattern of relations that would leave its fingerprints on the entire region, Al Jazeera Centre for Studies (ACS) has said in a policy briefing released yesterday.
Titled “The Impact of the Gulf Crisis on the Regional Balance of Power”, the paper has reasserted that Qatar would never back off from its strong relations and its agreements with Turkey and that it would never switch back to countering Iran for mollifying Saudi Arabia.
The briefing has also noted that Oman remained keen on strengthening its relations with Iran. As a result of the current Gulf crisis, Kuwait has actually begun to reassess its security and strategic plans, as a precaution against a possible crisis with it, similar to the one currently experienced by Qatar, the paper noted.
On the repercussions of the Gulf crisis on the regional relations, the briefing points out that Saudi Arabia is attempting to reconcile with Iran after its defeat in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, in an attempting to undermine these countries’ support to Qatar.
The briefing concluded that much doubt prevails with regard to making progress on the sphere of Saudi-Iranian relations in the short run, because of the magnitude of accumulated divisions between the two countries.
On the Saudi-Egyptian relations, the paper predicted further divisions between the two countries, despite their rapprochement over the Gulf crisis, because of the possible potential burden to be imposed by Cairo on Riyadh which is facing a depletion of resources on several fields.
The briefing traces the ostensible rapprochement in Saudi-Israeli relations as reflected in open and covert visits by former Saudi officials to the Jewish state and the Saudi-Egyptian agreement over Tiran and Sanafir islands.
The Saudi rapprochement policy with Israel aims at winning an ally in confronting Iran, in case attempts to resolve the problems hampering Saudi-Iranian relations failed to bear fruit, the briefing noted. Such rapprochement, it added, aims at gaining Israel’s support, particularly in the US scene, to the blockade on Qatar, in their attempts to subjugate the country.
On the implications of the Gulf crisis on relations with Turkey, the briefing points out that the crisis has strengthened Turkey’s role in the region, particularly after Turkish troops arrived in Qatar, a step that has practically helped aborting military escalation plans by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The paper noted that Turkish-Saudi-UAE relations experienced a chill, resulting from the ramifications of Turkey’s supportive stance to Qatar. Meanwhile, Turkey’s relations with Iran became warmer because of the growing co-operation between the two countries on policy lines and attitudes aiming at maintaining support to Qatar.
The paper concluded assessing the implications of the Gulf crisis on regional relations by stating that it was an exaggeration, at least in the current stage, to describe the changes in relations between the Gulf States and the regional and international powers as a sign of new emerging alliances. Impacted by the Gulf crisis, bilateral relations between some countries have become stronger, while relations in other cases have relapsed into hostility and enmity levels.
