Monday’s Manchester Arena suicide bombing, which killed 22 people and injured more than 60, has left the United Kingdom shocked, with the attack prompting swift condemnation and calls for unity from leaders across the political spectrum in the country and beyond.
It also led them to halt campaigning for the upcoming election.
The identity of the bomber has been revealed, and the country’s terror threat level raised to its highest level of “critical”. Even as more details emerge about the attack and how it was orchestrated, one question that political observers and analysts have started asking — and deliberating upon — is that whether the terror strike would have an impact on the election.
Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party is expected to win the election despite some recent reverses seen in opinion polls.
The Tories’ lead has been halved to 9%, according to one such poll.
While it is not easy to establish the impact of terror attacks — direct or indirect — on election results, they do influence public sentiments to a certain extent, feel analysts.
One of the views put forward is that terror strikes immediately preceding elections generally benefit parties to the right and candidates with more aggressive national security policies.
Something similar is likely to happen in this case as well, according to some analysts, hinting that the Conservatives are more likely to gain than the Labour Party under Left-leaning Jeremy Corbyn.
Any terror attack is followed by mixed reactions – some call for a united but restrained response, while others seek a more direct and pointed action.
The “strong and stable” poll pitch of the Tories, who project themselves as the defenders of Britain’s borders, national sovereignty and cultural identity, may fit in well with the post-attack narrative supporting a strong response.
The Manchester attack which deliberately targeted children is likely to have a profound emotional impact on the British public and the campaign.
Also, the PM’s demeanour after the attack suggested cold, hard anger and she appeared more emotional than the tone she struck after the Westminster attack in March, according to some observers.
On the other hand, some analysts suggest that the attack may not have much of an impact on the election as there doesn’t seem to be much public enthusiasm for any measures similar to France’s state of emergency.
Also, the rise of the right and ultra-right in Europe seems to have slowed down of late, the recent French election being an example.
France rejected Marine Le Pen for the centrist Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Angela Merkel looks set for a positive election outcome later this year for a fourth term as chancellor.
Even some of those who say the Manchester attack may influence the June election acknowledge that the impact would be limited.
The national mood over terrorism does not seem to be dominated by fear, they feel.
A poll last summer revealed that only 43% believed the government should do more to combat extremism, and 32% thought it was doing as much as could be expected.
These numbers may increase now, but may not be enough to have a defining impact on election results, it is felt.
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