The death of Pakistan’s Taliban supremo in a US missile strike, if confirmed, would deal a major blow to the militant nexus but could magnify the dangers should Al Qaeda exploit a leadership vacuum.
US officials increasingly believe that Hakimullah Mehsud, who rose suddenly to the Taliban leadership after a US missile killed his predecessor Baitullah Mehsud six months ago, has succumbed to the same fate.
They have no physical evidence and Pakistan has not confirmed his demise officially. But neither have the Taliban issued a promised message to prove their leader is alive, since an audio recording three weeks ago.
Killing Mehsud would be a coup for the United States, which stepped up its drone war after the warlord appeared in a video with Al Qaeda claiming a December 30 bombing that killed five CIA officers in Afghanistan.
“I still don’t think TTP is finished,” said Rahimullah Yusufzai, one of the most prominent experts on Pakistan’s wild tribal belt on the Afghan border, which shelters TTP, Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban commanders.
“Maybe their ability to strike back is limited but they will survive,” said Yusufzai.
Hakimullah presided over a big escalation in bombings against security installations and Pakistani civilians.
The group was blamed for a 20-hour siege of army headquarters, the slaughter of 125 people in a Peshawar market and 105 people at a volleyball game.
Hakimullah took credit, with Al Qaeda, for killing the CIA agents in southeastern Afghanistan, the worst attack on the US spy agency in 26 years.
Pakistan has seen a recent decline in attacks, due perhaps to the drone war but also to sustained Pakistani offensives across the tribal belt, which analysts believe make it difficult for TTP leaders to meet and travel.
Pakistani officials believe that a major Pakistani offensive, launched in October against the TTP stronghold in South Waziristan, scattered the leadership to far-flung locales in Orakzai and North Waziristan.
Mehmood Shah, a former security chief for the tribal belt, says the impact of Mehsud’s possible demise would remain unclear until the Taliban elects a new leader, whose personality will be key the organisation’s future course.
“I expect Al Qaeda to step in if there is a leadership crisis ... Al Qaeda has the brain and vision to mount sophisticated operations to create strategic effects,” he told AFP. |
