By Kamran Rehmat/Islamabad
It is premature to write off President Asif Zardari but staying bunkered in the hallowed presidency and long-time inaction have come back to haunt him spectacularly.
In the days and weeks ahead, the national mood - as manifest in a belligerent opposition, unhappy military leadership, critical intelligentsia, disillusioned hoi polloi, an assertive judiciary and last but not least deserting allies - will severely test his character.
Ever since the defining Supreme Court verdict last July to overturn former military ruler Pervez Musharraf’s decision to clamp emergency as illegal and vacate subsequent ultra vires steps taken by the general - President Zardari has been a worried man.
The worry stemmed from the court’s order to the government to seek parliamentary revalidation of 37 ordinances issued by Musharraf, failing which they would be rendered invalid.
Amongst these is the notorious National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), which was issued by the former general as part of a power-sharing deal with Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairperson Benazir Bhutto to facilitate her return from exile.
The so-called reconciliation drive, mid-wifed by the Bush Administration, was a decidedly selective political arrangement for Bhutto - as admitted to by Musharraf during a lecture circuit in the US last week - that helped quash more than decade-old cases of corruption and abuse of power against Bhutto and her husband Zardari.
Bhutto was assassinated after her final election rally in late 2007, and in a subsequent development Zardari anointed their young son, Bilawal, as the party chairperson, but actually seized control of the party himself and in September last year while his party was still in a honeymoon phase following an election victory got himself elected as the country’s president.
Before soon inexperience began to show up as Zardari reneged on a signed public document to restore the judiciary deposed by his predecessor, Musharraf, and continued with the same helpful judges in their stead, who had violated the oath of constitution in backing the military dictator.
This not only led to a bitter acrimony with former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who had lent considerable support to Zardari and his government to reinforce a nascent democratic transition, but also inflamed public opinion.
The judges issue became an everyday embarrassment for ruling PPP as Bhutto herself had publicly called for the restoration of deposed judiciary, even going to the extent of calling Iftikhar Chaudhary - the iconic symbol of lawyers’ movement - as “my chief justice”.
Instead of finding a way out of the labyrinth, the government of Pakistan’s strategically-inclined Punjab province, headed by Sharif’s brother Shahbaz, was dismissed and he was himself disqualified to hold public office over previous charges of misrule.
Sharifs alleged the verdict announced by Musharraf-era judges was engineered at the behest of Zardari, who they accused of manoeuvreing to bring his own party into power through the backdoor.
The immediate imposition of governor’s rule - a direct presidential appointee - instead of allowing the election of a new leader of the house reinforced that view.
In the following weeks, the Sharifs spearheaded a public campaign for the restoration of deposed judiciary, culminating in a successful long march that forced President Zardari’s hand - with both the Americans and Pakistan Army reading the riot act.
Subsequently, the Sharifs won all their legal battles, including the restoration of Shahbaz at the helm of the dismissed Punjab government.
In the interim, President Zardari contributed to his own isolation as he failed to fulfil a public pledge on more than one occasion to repeal laws repugnant to the spirit of the constitution like those relating to a bar on third-time prime minister, dissolution of parliament and/or dismissal of prime minister as well as powers to appoint services chiefs — all remnants of Musharraf’s rule.
But what may have singularly hurt Zardari politically was when, last month, he first described the Kerry-Lugar bill that stipulates conditional aid to Pakistan over the next five years as a major triumph for his government and decried opposition to the bill as an attempt to undermine his presidency.
However, conditionalities in the bill were perceived across Pakistan as an insult and a blot on national sovereignty. The army leadership was particularly incensed and broke with tradition to issue a public rejoinder that took exception to the bill.
Subsequent reports alleged the disparaging clauses and conditions about - and monitoring of - Pakistan Army, its intelligence arms and the country’s nuclear programme were included in the bill at the behest of elements within the ruling clique in Islamabad.
This has since created a schism between the president, who by virtue of his office is the supreme commander of the armed forces, and the powerful military.
Sections of the Pakistani media have been speculating in the last few weeks that if President Zardari were to lose office, in hindsight he may find the omens were strewn in the Kerry-Lugar bill fiasco
The schism, however, is not an overnight development.
The khakis have been wary of the president’s intentions ever since he first tried to push the control of the intelligence agencies under the thumb of Interior Minister Rehman Malik, a close aide, who like Zardari himself, is a beneficiary of the NRO.
The military was also perturbed over the president’s unilateral announcement during the course of a live Indian television discourse last year when he proposed a “no first use” sop to New Delhi, which negated the Pakistani nuclear doctrine of deterrence.
To shore up political support, the president invited Sharif last week to the presidency after several failed previous attempts even as his party made a desperate pitch in parliament to revalidate the NRO.
The general perception was that the PPP leader would offer a quid pro quo to the PML-N chief but surprisingly, it was reported by both parties after they met for an hour-and-a-half that not a word was aired about the controversial ordinance, let alone seek or lend support.
Events seem to have spiralled out of control on Monday as first Sharif and then, Altaf Hussain, leader of Muttahida Qaumi Movement, one of the main allies of the PPP, announced they were going to vote against the NRO. Independents and PPP-allied MPs from the tribal areas also joined the chorus in a shocking indictment of the ruling party’s move.
In a somewhat ironical twist, Musharraf’s political allies and the last ruling party, Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid, have already promised a deathly blow to the NRO.
The PPP government has since retracted the bill from parliament, although by no means will the attempted damage-control save it from future turbulence.
If at all, failure to revalidate the NRO - which now appears well nigh impossible - by November 28 as per the apex court directive, is pregnant with far reaching consequences. Many ruling clique beneficiaries, including ministers, would lose their jobs and be liable for prosecution again on account of cases closed under the NRO.
The president’s own future is uncertain — he enjoys constitutional indemnity only as long as he is in office.
*** The author can be reached at
kaamyabi@gmail.com
|
