New crescent: Determining the first day of Ramadan

Fasting the month of Ramadan is obligatory, it is in fact the fourth pillar of Islam. Allah says: “The month of Ramadan during which the Qur’an was revealed, as a guidance for mankind and clear proofs for guidance and judgment. So whoever of you sights the crescent of the month, he must fast it.” (Qur’an 2:185). It is then of great importance to know when the month of Ramadan starts.
Muslims the world over go out on the 29th day of the month of Sha’aban, the month preceding Ramadan, to try to sight the new crescent. When a Muslim sees the crescent, he reports his sighting to the people in authority in his area and the next day is declared as the first day of Ramadan in that area. This has been the case since the time of Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam.
The issue of sighting the crescent versus using calculations to determine the beginning of the month of Ramadan is the subject of a lot of discussion among today’s Muslims.  Some ask why should we go out and sight the crescent? Isn’t the science of astronomy advanced enough to determine the first day of Ramadan? To clarify the Islamic standpoint on this issue, we should rely on the Qur’an, the Sunnah, and what is agreed upon by Muslim scholars.
What is said about sighting the crescent in the Qur’an and the Sunnah
Allah said: “They ask you about the crescents. Say: They are but signs to mark fixed periods of time in the affairs of men and for pilgrimage.” (Qur’an 2:189) And He said: “The number of months in the sight of Allah is twelve so ordained by Him the day He created the heavens and the earth; of them four are sacred.” (Qur’an 9:36). Allah also said: “Whoever witnesses the crescent of the month, he must fast the month.” (Qur’an 2:185).
These verses show that the number of months in a year is twelve, the Islamic month is lunar, and its beginning is determined by sighting the crescent. The word crescent is used here as a translation of the Arabic world Hilaal which means apparent, because it is visible.
The Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam, has shown us the way to determine the beginning of the month in numerous hadiths narrated by famous companions, such as Abu Hurairah, Ibn Abbas, Ibn Umar, radhiallahu anhum, and others.
* Abu Hurairah narrated that the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam said: “If you see the crescent then fast, and if you see it (meaning at the end of Ramadan), then break your fast (meaning it is Eid), and if the sky is overcast then fast thirty days.” (Related by al-Bukhari and Muslim).
n In another narration he said: “Fast upon seeing the crescent, and break your fast upon seeing it, and if the sky is overcast complete the count of Sha’aban, thirty days.” (Related by al-Bukhari). In another narration of the same hadith, the final phrase was: “...estimate for it.” (Related by Annassaee). Yet in another narration the final phrase was: “...estimate for it and complete thirty days.” (Related by Ibn Khuzaymah).
* The Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam, also said concerning Ramadan: “A month is either 29 or 30 days long. So if you see the crescent, then fast, and if you see it again (meaning at the end of Ramadan) then break your fast. And when the sky is overcast, then complete the count.” (Related by an-Nassa’e)
* Abdullah Ibn Umar narrated that the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam, said: “We are an illiterate nation. We do neither write nor calculate. A month is so and so and so (and he pointed with his hands three times, folding one thumb on the third time, meaning 29 days) or so and so and so (and he pointed with his hands three times, meaning thirty days).” (Related by al-Bukhari and Muslim).
‘Aisha, radhiallahu ‘anha, narrated: “The Messenger of Allah used to take great precautions concerning the month of Sha’aban, more than for other months. He fasted upon seeing the crescent of Ramadan, and when the sky was overcast, he counted 30 days, then fasted.” (Related by Abu Dawud).
The jurisprudence of the above hadiths
These authentic hadiths clearly put forth several fundamentals in determining the beginning of a month:
* The sign of the beginning of the month is the real sighting of the crescent and nothing else.
* The lunar month has at least 29 days and at most 30 days. Fasting cannot start before 29 days have passed in the month Sha’aban. At least 29 days have to be fasted in Ramadan.
* The beginning of the month is determined only by something certain. This is the case for all timed rituals (such as Haj). Allah has tied the times of these rituals with clear signs, signs that people cannot control, and all are equal in the understanding of these signs. This is one of the aspects that make this religion simple to follow.
* The monthly rituals depend on the crescent in a sure way: either sighting it or completing the month. This way is both simple and accurate. This certainty is achieved because the lunar month is either 29 or 30 days. The laws of Islamic jurisprudence state that a known, sure situation is not abandoned for another unless one is sure of that change. This principle is relevant here.
The agreement of Muslim scholars
Islamic law determines the beginning of the month with a concrete method, in which all humans are equal. Muslims used this method at all times. The companions have not differed on this, and it has been the consensus of the Muslim scholars. Ibn Taymiyyah related their agreement on this, saying: “We know for sure that, in the religion of Islam, using calculations to determine the sighting of the crescent concerning fasting, Haj, etc..., is not allowed. The hadiths of the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam, concerning this are numerous, and it already has the consensus of the Muslims. No disagreement is known in the past or the present, except that some of the late scholars who came after the third century (Hijrah calendar) claim that if the sky is overcast, then it is allowed for the person who makes the calculation to fast if his calculations show that the crescent would have been sighted had the sky been clear. This claim is odd even if it is conditioned on cloudiness, and concerns only that person. As for taking calculations into account in the case of a clear sky, or making it a general rule, no Muslim has ever said it.” (al-Fatawa, V. 5, pp. 132-133)
The arguments of those who support the use of calculations
Some contemporary jurists allow the use of calculations in determining the beginning of the month of Ramadan. Their arguments are mainly based on two hadiths:
1- The hadith that says: “... and if the sky is overcast, estimate for it.” They understand this is as calculate it. They claim that this request is addressed to those who have that knowledge, while the saying “complete the count” is addressed to the general public.
2- The hadith in which the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam, said: “We are an illiterate nation. We do neither write nor calculate. A month is so and so and so (and he pointed with his hands three times, folding the thumb on the third times, meaning 29 days) or so and so and so (and he pointed with his hands three times, meaning thirty days).” The advocates of using calculations see in this hadith an indication that sighting should be adapted for a specific reason, such as an illiterate nation which does not write nor calculate. But when people can be very accurate in calculating the beginning of months, then they can use calculations.
These hadiths have been wrongly interpreted. The above arguments are discussed and refuted in the following:
Refuting the support for using calculations
1- The interpretation of “estimate for it”: The duty of scholars is to examine all the narrations of a hadith and try to find an interpretation that fits them all. Only in the case where no agreement can be found at all that different interpretations can be accepted. Of all the hadiths mentioning the sighting of the crescent (and there are 15 of them), only one has the phrase “estimate for it”, and another has “estimate for it thirty days”. All these hadiths are authentic, and all agree in wording and meaning on completing the month 30 days if the sky is overcast.
It is sufficient to say that the same companions who narrated the two hadiths mentioning “estimate for it” also narrated other hadiths mentioning “count thirty days” and “complete the count thirty”. How could a companion narrate two hadiths that are contradictory? It becomes then clear that “estimate for it” means the same as “estimate for it thirty days” which means “complete the count”. This was the meaning understood by the collectors of hadiths such as al-Bukhari, Malik, and Ibn Hajar.
2- The meaning of “We are an illiterate nation...”: In this hadith, the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam, was informing his nation that it does not need writing nor calculation to determine the crescent, that the month is either 29 or 30 days, and it is known by actual sighting or completing. This hadith actually discourages the use of calculations, and orders the use of sighting.
The order in this hadith has a parallel in the Prophet saying: “The Muslim is the one from those hand and tongue Muslims are safe.” (Related by al-Bukhari and Muslim). This indicates a description of a Muslim, and includes forbidding harming other Muslims by hand or tongue. Yet this does not mean that a Muslim is not physically capable of harming his fellow Muslim. Similarly, not all Muslims are illiterate, but they are described so because they do not use writing nor calculations in determining the beginning of the month.
Moreover, thinking that this hadith concerns only Muslims at the time of the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam, because they could not calculate is easily refuted. In fact, there were among the companions of the Prophet, many who could write and read and undertake complicated calculations concerning Zakat and inheritance, which require knowledge of arithmetic. Others also knew maths and astronomy, nevertheless the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam, indicated that calculations are not the way to determine our month, and he stated that the month is known only by sighting.
The above discussion is sufficient to convince any one that as far as fasting is concerned, the use of calculations is not allowed. Nevertheless, we shall, in the following, present the manner in which calculations are used, so that no doubt would linger in the Muslim’s mind concerning this subject.
What is lunar month?
To astronomers, a lunar month is the time it takes the moon to orbit once around the earth, which is approximately 29 days 12 hours and 44 minutes. When the moon is lined up between the sun and earth  it is not visible at all. This is called astronomical conjunction. The lunar month begins at exactly that position. On the other hand, jurists agree that the month starts when the crescent is first sighted at sunset, and that the month is either 29 or 30 days long. These two definitions differ in two aspects:
1- The astronomical lunar month has a definite, set period, whereas to jurists, the legal lunar month is either 29 or 30 days (legal here refers to Islamic law).
2- The astronomical month starts when conjunction occurs. To jurists, the month starts by actually sighting the crescent or by completing 30 days of the previous month.
It appears from this that simply substituting they month recognised by jurists by the one recognised by astronomers leads to an obvious contradiction of the hadith of the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam, who made sighting a necessary condition, because the astronomical month starts before the crescent can be seen.
Debating the different methods of calculations
After clarifying that the lunar month in Islamic law is different from the one used in astronomy, it should be brought into attention that there are different methods used by the proponents of calculations to determine the first day of fasting. Among these:
1- A method which considers that fasting starts on the day that follows astronomical conjunction. This is of course wrong since the crescent is not even visible at the time of conjunction. This has already been debated and no further discussion is needed.
2- Other methods use estimations of the time needed after conjunction for the crescent to become visible.
In this second category, some set an arbitrary time (a certain number of hours after conjunction occurs), for the crescent to become visible. As Muslims reported sighting of younger and younger crescents, this group kept changing their criterion. The youngest crescent so far reported is 13 hrs and 24 minutes old. There is no guarantee that younger crescents will not be seen in the future; and there is no guarantee that every crescent that is older than 13 hrs 24 min will necessarily be seen.
More sophisticated methods use statistical models to determine a probable visibility of the crescent. These statistics are based on collected data of previous sightings by a certain number of people. Based on these data, the earth is divided at the time of sunset on the 29th day of the month into three zones:
* A first zone where it is claimed that it is impossible for the crescent to be sighted, hence, any sighting from that zone is rejected no matter how many people report a sighting.
* A second zone where the crescent is ruled to be sightable. The beginning of Ramadan is then announced to be the following day for the zone even if nobody reports a sighting from that zone.
* A third zone called Zone of Uncertainty (ZOU) where no definite ruling can be pronounced.
Those who advocate this method have avoided the error of those who start the month right after astronomical conjunction, but have nevertheless fallen into a greater error which is to rely on crude statistical estimations that cannot predict with precision the beginning of the month. From this it becomes clear that:
* The problem is not really concerning astronomical calculations, which, even if one assumes that they are of great precision, can never by themselves predict the first day the crescent is sighted.
* The most sophisticated models rely of statistical estimations that could at best give an estimation of probable visibility of the crescent, for a certain area. Results derived from such models have only ‘statistical significance’.
It is known that the matter of visibility depends on many factors such as the position of the crescent with respect to the sun (when it is closer to the sun the twilight is a hindrance to see it, when it is farther away from the sun, the crescent is easier to distinguish from the twilight, hence more visible. Such a position is determined by two angles: The altitude and the azimuth of the moon at sunset time), the humidity and the degree of pollution in the atmosphere, and the eyesight of the observer. It is extremely hard, if not impossible to precisely predict how all these factors will influence the visibility of the crescent.
And even if, for the sake of argument, all these factors and their influence on visibility were predictable and quantifiable, and the eyesight of all Muslims estimated to have a certain degree of acuteness, it is always possible that there exists out a Muslim who Allah has gifted exceptional eyesight, and who can sight the crescent. It is sufficient that this Muslim says he has seen the crescent to declare the next day a fasting day!
Sighting and the unity of the Muslim Ummah
Those who advocate the use of calculations for determining the month of Ramadan have done a great disservice to the Muslim Ummah. It is alarming to see Muslim scholars adopt the use of calculation without even knowing what these calculations involve. Such people have thrown Muslims into disarray, and contributed to the disunity of the Muslim Ummah. Allah, subhanahu wa ta’ala, said: “And hold fast, all of you together, to the rope of Allah, and be not divided among yourselves,” (Qur’an 3:103). And the rope of Allah is His Book, the Qur’an, and the Sunnah of His Prophet Muhammad, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam.
The Prophet Muhammad, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam, has shown the Muslims the way to know the month of Ramadan, which is by sighting the crescent or completing 30 days. It is a unique, simple and accurate way. Every Muslim can participate in sighting the crescent, making all Muslims equal, and feel that they are one Ummah. Those who use calculations do not have a unique simple way of determining the crescent. They have models which vary in degrees of accuracy, but cannot be as accurate as sighting. Every group follows his own method, which makes them divided even among themselves. And that is what happens when people deviate from the Sunnah of the Prophet, sallallaahu ‘alaihi wa sallam.