By Michael McCarthy
LONDON: Mass movements of peoples across the world are likely to be one of the most dramatic effects of climate change in the coming century, a new study suggests.
The spectre of hundreds of millions of environmental refugees is raised by the study, from the aid agency Tearfund, which says that the main cause will be climate-induced threats from water, or the lack of it – from droughts and water shortages, from flooding and storm surges, and from sea-level rise.
The report, Feeling the Heat, states that there are already an estimated 25mn million environmental refugees around the world, and that this figure is likely to soar as rain patterns continue to change, floods and storms become more frequent and rising tides start to inundate low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, or some of the Pacific islands.
Tearfund says that without urgent action, world governments will lose the fight to tackle the world water crisis and the growing threat of climate change refugees in catastrophic numbers.
The report calls for governments at the UN Climate Change conference, beginning in Nairobi in a fortnight’s time, to move towards a global framework for cutting climate-changing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide that goes beyond the existing climate treaty, the Kyoto Protocol, and to commit billions more pounds to help poor countries adapt to the changes to come.
"There will be millions more thirsty, hungry and ill poor people living in high risk areas of the world by the end of the century," the report states. "It makes sense politically, economically and morally, for governments to act with urgency now."
Andy Atkins, Advocacy Director of Tearfund said that one of the most devastating impacts of climate change was on water supply.
"In some parts of the world, floods, storms and poor rainfall are beginning to have catastrophic effects, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people," he said.
The report cites examples of where water problems are already causing a mass exodus or movement of people. They include:
*Poor crop yields are forcing more and more Mexicans to risk death by illegally fleeing to the USA.
*One in five Brazilians born in the arid north-east of the country are moving to avoid drought.
*The spread of the Gobi desert, at a rate of 4,000 square miles a year, is forcing the populations of three provinces in China to abandon their homes.
*In Nigeria, 1,350 square miles of land are turning to desert each year. Farmers and herdsmen are being forced to move to the cities.
*The population of Tuvalu, a group of eight Pacific islands north-east of Australia, is already being evacuated; nearly 3,000 Tuvalans have already left.
This process will be steadily exacerbated, the report says, by the differing yet equally serious changes predicted to be part of a warming world.
While some parts of the globe may experience much less rainfall and thus drought, other regions will have much more intense rain likely to bring about flooding.
Sea-level rise, which a recent report suggested could be up to 50cm by 2050, would at that rate breach 100,000km of coastline around the world.
In the report’s Foreword, Sir John Houghton, former Chair of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), says that politicians’ strong words on climate change must now be matched by sufficient investment and strong action to cut global emissions, and help for the poorest nations adapt to climate change on their doorstep.
A key to this will be helping poorer nations manage existing water supplies better.
"If your house is on fire, do you urgently try to save it, or throw your hands up in despair and walk away?" says Sir John.
"Well, the house is on fire and it requires much more determined efforts to bring it under control and put it out. The UN climate change conference in Nairobi is an opportunity for failings to be addressed. Time is running out on us and governments need to act much more responsibly, effectively and quickly." – The Independent |
