BOILING OVER: This aerial photo shows the Barðarbunga volcano. Iceland temporarily banned air traffic near its largest volcano after a lava field erupted on Friday, threatening a repeat of the global travel chaos four years ago when another peak blew. The aviation “red alert” for Barðarbunga volcano was lifted later when it became clear that the eruption was minor and did not release large quantities of ash.

By Steff Gaulter

Thousands of small earthquakes have been rocking Iceland, making many passengers nervous. Anyone with a flight booked, who can remember the chaos caused by the ash cloud of 2010, is hoping there won’t be a rerun.

In 2010, the volcano with the unpronounceable name, Eyjafjallajökull, erupted. It caused the worst disruption to air-travel in Europe since World War II. Aircraft were grounded for days on end, holidays were ruined and business trips scuppered. In total, over 100,000 flights were cancelled and 10mn passengers left stranded.

This time the volcano at the heart of the concern is called Barðarbunga, which at least there is a cat in hell’s chance of a newsreader pronouncing! The seismic activity underneath the volcano has increased dramatically, which is evidence that magma is moving under the ground. However, at the time of writing this, scientists were keen to tell us that so far there was no indication that the magma was rising towards the surface, and that an eruption wasn’t inevitable.

There was also the chance that the movement could simply stop and the volcano could become quiet once more, or that the magma could start to rise and trigger a flood, rather than an explosive eruption.

Despite the uncertainty, as the movement triggers alerts in Iceland, people have already started asking me if their flights are likely to be affected. Although it is possible that some fights may be disrupted, it is very unlikely that we will see the extensive grounding of aeroplanes that we did in 2010, for a number of reasons.

Firstly, the weather set up in 2010 was fairly unusual. There was an area of high pressure situated to the southeast of Iceland. High pressure systems are generally quite lazy and don’t like to move anywhere in a great hurry, but this was particularly stubborn.

This region of high pressure remained anchored in place for weeks, directing the ash from Eyjafjallajökull directly down to northwest Europe. It would be extremely unlucky for another area of high pressure to develop and be just as stubborn at precisely the wrong time.

Secondly, the ash must be of the right size. A year after the volcano with the unpronounceable name erupted, another volcano called Grímsvötn sprang to life. You’re far less likely to remember this eruption, because the ash it belched into the atmosphere was far more coarse than that of Eyjafjallajökull. This ensured that it fell out of the atmosphere far more quickly, meaning that some parts of Iceland were completely covered, but further afield there was less to be seen.

The final reason is perhaps the most important, and that is that the rules about flying through ash have changed. In 2010, airlines simply weren’t allowed to fly through any ash, but now there are three different categories; low, medium and high density.

For low density ash, it’s all systems go! There are no delays and no problems. For medium density ash, airlines are allowed to fly through the ash, as long as they have a safety case accepted by the Civil Aviation Authority. This safety case sets out what the airline will do to alleviate the risks of flying through ash, including gathering information from aircraft and engine manufacturers.

To avoid any unnecessary delays many airlines already have their safety cases submitted and approved. The real problems will now only arise if the ash is considered to be in the high density category. Obviously safety is still the priority, so the levels of ash permitted are still relatively low.

Just four milligrams of ash in a cubic metre is enough to be classed as high density, but this category system still allows far more flights to operate than were able to do so in 2010. Therefore by introducing these categories, and improving the computer models which simulate the movement of the ash across Europe, it is believed that the major disruption which was seen in 2010 will be avoided, without compromising on safety.

All of this means that the chances of Barðarbunga erupting and disrupting your travel plans are small.

However, if the volcano did manage to spew ash of exactly the correct size into the atmosphere, whilst the winds are travelling in precisely the right direction, and you do find yourself stranded in a European airport, it’s worth remembering that the regulations in Europe are fairly strict and travellers have to be looked after.

Anyone travelling from an EU airport, or to an EU airport on an airline based in an EU member state (including Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland) is entitled to compensation if their flight is delayed beyond a certain length. This length depends on the distance you are flying, but if you are flying to Qatar, the delay needs to be over four hours. If the delay is caused by ‘exceptional circumstances’, such as a cloud of volcanic ash, then you are not entitled to compensation, but you have to be given what are known as ‘welfare packages’.

A welfare package usually includes food, drinks, two phone calls and, if your flight delay is overnight, accommodation plus transport to and from where you are staying. This even applies to budget airlines such as Ryanair, who in 2010 tried to avoid paying these fees, but their argument was dismissed in court. Obviously this won’t bring back a day of your holiday, but it will make sure you’re not homeless.

Even if you’re not going on holiday, it is possible for you to see one effect of an eruption. After an extra injection of particles into the atmosphere, there’s more for the sun’s rays to bounce off.

This means that sunsets all the way around the globe are more vivid and beautiful. So the next time you hear that a volcano is erupting, in Iceland or anywhere in the world, cast your eyes to the sky and appreciate the beauty. Although I realise that this might be quite difficult if you’re stranded at an airport.

 

 

 

Related Story