Taiwan’s warmer relations with China were called into question yesterday after the island’s Beijing-friendly ruling party suffered its worst-ever polls defeat in local elections, sparking the resignation of premier Jiang Yi-huah.

The rout came as the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party struggles to combat public fears of China’s growing influence, as well as a slowing economy and a string of food scandals.

Seen as a barometer before presidential elections in 2016, the poll results may now force the KMT to re-examine its China policy—and encourage the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is traditionally Beijing-sceptic.

“The KMT are not likely to push the ties (with China) forward if they hope not to suffer another huge setback in the 2016 presidential race,” Ding Shuh-fan, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei, told AFP. 

“At the same time China is also unlikely to make concessions and offer substantial economic benefits in talks” given the prospect of the DPP taking power in 2016, Ding added.

Beijing called for “continued efforts for peaceful cross-strait relations” in the wake of the vote.

“We hope compatriots across the strait will cherish hard-won fruits of cross-strait relations, and jointly safeguard and continue to push forward peaceful development of cross-strait relations,” said Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office.

Taiwan and China split in 1949 at the end of a civil war, but Beijing still claims the island as part of its territory awaiting reunification—by force if necessary.

Tensions rose markedly during the presidency of the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian from 2000-2008. 

Since KMT President Ma Ying-jeou came to power that year on a China-friendly platform, frosty ties have warmed, leading to a tourist boom of Chinese visitors to Taiwan as well as expanded trade links.

But there is public anxiety at the closer relationship. A proposed services trade pact with the mainland sparked mass student-led protests and a three-week occupation of Taiwan’s parliament earlier this year.

“The Ma administration has been too reliant on China economically,” said 32-year-old designer Tom Shen in Taipei.

Two months of democracy rallies in Hong Kong could also have strengthened anti-Beijing sentiment, said Chang Wu-ueh, director of Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of China Studies in Taipei.

“The pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong may have indirectly affected voters’ mood in Taiwan and deepened the negative perception of Beijing,” he said. 

But Taiwan’s slowing economy will make it hard for any government to reject trade deals with China outright—and even non-KMT politicians are not ruling out trade negotiations with Beijing.

“Given the huge amount of trade and civil visits across the strait, it would be unrealistic to halt immediately what is going on,” admitted Shen.  

Ding said there was “no way to turn back the tide” of trade and investment relations. The DPP’s current leader Tsai Ing-wen has moderated her party’s cross-strait stance since she was elected earlier this year.

The KMT took 40.7% of the ballots cast in the local polls, while the DPP scooped 47.5.

The KMT went from controlling four of the six major municipalities to just one, while its city and county seats were more than halved. It lost its key stronghold of Taipei, where independent candidate Ko Wen-je became mayor.

Taiwan’s United Daily News said yesterday the results were a “no-confidence” vote in the Ma administration.

“Ma must swiftly reform the party and government, otherwise there won’t be a future for the (KMT) party in Taiwan,” it said.

The Liberty Times said Taiwan had given a “huge slap in the face” to the KMT, but warned the DPP against complacency.

“The election has set a clear guideline (for politicians) — anyone who performs poorly will be replaced.”

Ma must stand down at the next elections as he has completed two terms.

Pressure is building for president Ma to step down as after the unprecedented election battering.

With presidential elections due within two years, President Ma Ying-jeou is unlikely to be able to push forward stalled trade talks with China.

Giving up the party chairman’s role as a gesture to take responsibility for the election losses, as some within the party are demanding, does not require Ma to relinquish the presidency, however. Ma is serving his second, and final, four-year term as president, which ends in 2016.

The beating Ma’s Kuomintang (KMT) party took at Saturday’s local elections shows that its strategy built with Beijing, to pull the island closer using economic ties, is failing, said Nicholas Consonery, of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

Within hours of the poll results, barbed wire was hastily run atop the metal gates protecting the Kuomintang’s headquarters in the capital, Taipei, as a smattering of protesters gathered outside, shouting “Ma, step down!”

Inside, Ma bowed deeply before cameras and apologised for the loss. The protest petered out quickly, but the negative sentiment has been growing for some time.

In March, thousands of young Taiwanese occupied parliament in a demonstration, dubbed the Sunflower movement, against a planned trade pact calling for closer ties with Beijing.

China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, and has preferred to deal with the party of Chiang Kai-shek that retreated to Taiwan after losing the Chinese civil war in 1949.

The alternative is the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which advocates independence for Taiwan.

It now controls major cities in southern Taiwan and prevailed on Saturday in two former KMT strongholds: Taipei, the capital, and Taichung, in central Taiwan.

“Is cross-strait trade for the benefit of all Taiwanese or just for the rich class?” said Ko Wen-je, an independent candidate who triumphed in the mayoral race for Taipei, and was backed by the DPP.

Taiwan’s pride in its democracy helps reinforce the unwillingness of many to be absorbed politically by China. The growing ties with China lay bare larger anxieties, especially among the young, about Taiwan’s identity.

It was this social media-savvy, younger generation that stood up by the hundreds in Taipei’s Liberty Square in October to support anti-China pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.

“To win over the Sunflower movement generation is to win over the presidency,” said Wang Dan, a leader of the Chinese democracy movement and one of the students in the 1989 protests in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.

 

Related Story