Dr Rose and Dr al-Qahtani at the launch of the report yesterday
By Bonnie James/Deputy News Editor
Carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector could be 79% higher in 2050 if governments and public and private sectors do not act, the World Energy Council (WEC) cautioned in its Global Transport Scenarios 2050 report, launched yesterday at the 20th World Petroleum Congress.
The year-long study, led by a team of 54 experts from 29 countries, emphasises that the evolution of the transport world over the next four decades will offer many challenges, the biggest of which is providing sustainable transport for the seven to 9bn people at the lowest social cost possible.
“The transport fuel demand in the next 40 years will come mainly from developing countries such as China and India, where demand will grow by 200% to 300%,” stated Dr Karl Rose, WEC’s director of policy and scenarios, while introducing the report.
In contrast, the transport fuel demand for the developed countries will drop by up to 20%, mainly due to increased efficiencies.
The demand of the developing countries is expected to surpass that of the developed countries by the year 2025.
“Oil may still fuel more than 80% of the global transport sector for the next 40 years due to strong demand growth from the heavy duty sector, shipping and air traffic,” said Dr Ayed al-Qahtani, WEC’s senior project manager of the Global Transport Scenarios 2050.
By 2050, WEC projects that global fuel demand in all transport modes could increase by 30% to 82% compared to 2010 levels.
The report describes potential developments in global transport fuels and technology systems on the basis of two distinct scenarios: ‘Freeway’ and ‘Tollway.’
The ‘Freeway’ scenario envisages a world where pure market forces prevail to create a climate for open global competition and solutions which are driven by lowest cost and the private sector.
The ‘Tollway’ scenario describes a more regulated world where governments decide to intervene in markets to promote early adoption of alternative technology solutions and invest in public transport infrastructure putting common interests at the forefront.
“The Freeway and Tollway scenarios describe two extreme ends of the potential future of transport,” Prof Rose observed while stressing that the reality will inevitably be between these two scenarios with regional differences playing a major role.
Predicting a radical change in the transport sector, he explained that the light duty vehicle sector in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries will be almost completely transformed in terms of fuel mix.
“We will see a pronounced shift of demand for transport fuels to the developing countries. The effect of the penetration of new technologies seems to be less profound than many have predicted, mainly due to the exceptional growth in heavy transport demand,” he added.
Dr al-Qahtani said the study reveals a particularly strong rise in demand for diesel, fuel oil and jet fuel which together constitute the bulk of transport market fuels.
“By 2050, the demand for these three fuels could increase by between 10% and 68%; diesel alone will grow by between 46% and 200%, while jet fuel will grow by 200% to 300%. This has potentially significant implications for refiners and the downstream sector as a whole, especially in Europe which traditionally has a larger focus on diesel fuels.”
The consequences for the environment are significant. In 2010, the CO2 emissions from the transport sector were about 23% of global CO2 emission levels and emissions from cars were about 41% of total transport emissions.
With the higher levels of transport demand in 2050, depending on the fuel mix, total CO2  emissions from the transportation sector are expected to increase between 16% (Tollway) and 79% (Freeway), depending entirely on the degree of governments’ intervention in the transport markets and the success in advancing low carbon fuel systems.
WEC secretary general Dr Christoph Frei maintained that the CO2 emissions increase could be limited to 16% with clear policies that empower governments, the public and private sector to intervene.
WEC chairman Pierre Gadonneix stressed that the proposed scenarios for transportation are a basis for a constructive dialogue between national and local policy makers, manufacturers, consumers and producers.
IBM Corporation and Paul Scherrer Institute were project partners for the study, which was supported by a core team in WEC and the member network.



 

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